Agile Evolution: Comparing 2018 Discussions to 2025 Trends in Software and Beyond

I asked Grok AI to compare Agile discussions I had with colleagues while working at Microsoft in 2018 with the common state of these subjects today, March 21, 2025. The 2018 conversations captured a pivotal moment in Agile’s evolution—its roots in software and its tension with traditional management. Below is an analysis of those 2018 discussions, contrasted with the current landscape.

1. Agile’s Origins and Software Branding

2018 Perspective: The threads highlight Agile’s software-centric branding via the Agile Manifesto, a deliberate move by founders like Jeff Sutherland to counter Conway’s Law and insulate developers from rigid organizational cultures. Yet, its origins in manufacturing (e.g., Nonaka and Takeuchi’s work) were noted, with a growing recognition that Agile was outgrowing its software roots, though hampered by that branding.

2025 Perspective: Today, Agile’s software branding is far less restrictive. While it remains a cornerstone in tech (e.g., Scrum, DevOps), its principles have permeated industries like healthcare, education, and government. The shift isn’t just in application but in perception—Agile is now widely seen as a mindset, not a software-specific toolkit. Books, frameworks (e.g., SAFe 6.0), and conferences in 2025 emphasize “Enterprise Agility,” focusing on adaptability and customer-centricity across sectors. The manufacturing roots are less cited now, overshadowed by Agile’s modern identity as a universal approach to complexity and change.

2. Vertical Control vs. Horizontal Enablement

2018 Perspective: A core tension in the threads is the clash between traditional management’s “vertical ideology of control” and Agile’s “horizontal ideology of enablement.” The 88% tension reported in the poll underscored this divide, framing Agile as oil to management’s water—fundamentally incompatible due to differing goals, values, and metrics.

2025 Perspective: This tension persists but has softened in some areas. Many organizations have adopted hybrid models, blending hierarchical oversight with Agile practices, often under labels like “Agile at Scale” or “Business Agility.” The rise of AI-driven decision-making and remote work has forced traditional management to cede some control, aligning more with enablement. However, the “oil and water” metaphor still holds in rigid bureaucracies, where Agile is often superficially applied (e.g., “Agile-washing”). Metrics now frequently blend efficiency (traditional) with customer satisfaction and innovation rates (Agile), reflecting a pragmatic compromise rather than a full ideological shift.

3. Self-Organizing Teams and Customer Focus

2018 Perspective: Agile’s emphasis on self-organizing teams delivering iterative value directly to customers was a radical departure from hierarchical bureaucracy. Examples like Etsy’s continuous deployment (30+ updates daily) showcased how this flattened structure enhanced autonomy and responsiveness.

2025 Perspective: Self-organizing teams are now mainstream in tech and beyond, turbocharged by AI tools that automate routine tasks, freeing teams to focus on creative problem-solving. Customer focus has intensified—real-time feedback loops, powered by data analytics and social media (e.g., X sentiment analysis), allow firms to pivot faster than ever. Continuous deployment has evolved into “AI-assisted deployment,” where machine learning models predict and optimize updates, pushing the Etsy model to new heights (some firms now deploy hundreds of micro-updates daily). The customer is not just central but hyper-empowered, dictating terms via platforms and ecosystems.

4. Agile vs. Traditional Management

2018 Perspective: The threads paint management as a vertical, top-down world obsessed with efficiency and shareholder value, contrasted with Agile’s horizontal, innovation-driven ethos aimed at delighting customers. Critics like Sam Palmisano dismissed Agile giants (Apple, Google) as lacking longevity, yet their market caps dwarfed traditional firms like IBM.

2025 Perspective: The divide remains, but the scoreboard has tilted further toward Agile. Apple, Google, and newer players like Tesla dominate market caps, while traditional giants (e.g., IBM, GM) either adapt or fade. Management hasn’t fully surrendered—many C-suites still cling to control—but Agile’s success has forced a rethink. “Agile Leadership” training is now a buzzword, blending enablement with strategic oversight. The Creative Economy has outpaced the Traditional Economy, with firms prioritizing ecosystems (e.g., app platforms, gig networks) over rigid hierarchies. Palmisano’s skepticism looks increasingly dated as Agile firms sustain multi-act runs.

5. Scalability and Ecosystems

2018 Perspective: Agile’s scalability was evident in examples like Apple’s app ecosystem and Autodesk’s platform, contrasting with the limits of single Scrum teams. This showcased Agile’s ability to handle complexity beyond what bureaucracy could achieve.

2025 Perspective: Scalability is now Agile’s superpower. Ecosystems have exploded—think Amazon’s marketplace, Tesla’s energy grid, or even decentralized platforms like blockchain networks. AI amplifies this, enabling real-time coordination across millions of contributors and customers. Single-team Agile still exists, but large-scale frameworks (e.g., LeSS, Nexus) and platform-based models dominate, proving Agile can orchestrate global complexity. Bureaucracy’s scalability, once a strength, now feels clunky and outdated.

6. Challenges and “Fake Agile”

2018 Perspective: The threads warn of Agile’s difficulty—high initial failure rates, resistance from traditional structures, and “fake Agile” where firms slap the label on unchanged practices. Success required persistence and a genuine ideological shift.

2025 Perspective: Challenges persist, but the narrative has shifted. Failed implementations are less about resistance and more about execution—lack of training, poor tooling, or misaligned incentives. “Fake Agile” remains rampant, especially in legacy firms, but it’s increasingly called out by employees and consultants on platforms like X. Success stories (e.g., Spotify’s squad model evolving into “tribes 2.0”) show that persistence pays off, though the bar is higher—firms must integrate AI, ESG goals, and hybrid work into their Agile DNA.

7. Continuous Deployment and DevOps

2018 Perspective: Continuous deployment (e.g., Etsy’s 30+ daily updates) blurred development and operations, boosting autonomy and reducing downtime. It was “innovation on steroids,” contrasting with the “deployment army” of traditional releases.

2025 Perspective: DevOps is now table stakes, supercharged by AI and zero-trust security. Firms deploy thousands of updates daily—Etsy’s 30 feels quaint. Tools like GitLab and Kubernetes, paired with AI-driven testing, make this seamless. The “deployment army” is extinct; teams own the full cycle, empowered by automation. Downtime is a relic, and innovation speed is a key competitive edge, especially in AI-driven sectors like fintech and health tech.

8. Copernican Revolution in Management

2018 Perspective: Agile was framed as a paradigm shift akin to Copernicus—moving from firm-centric to customer-centric thinking. This wasn’t just a process tweak but a societal upheaval, challenging traditional power structures.

2025 Perspective: The revolution is in full swing. The customer-as-center model is entrenched, driven by data, AI, and platform economics. Traditional management’s decline mirrors the Church’s post-Copernicus—still powerful but losing relevance. Socially, Agile aligns with decentralized trends (e.g., DAOs, remote work), questioning not just corporate hierarchies but governance itself. It’s less about “management” adapting and more about it being replaced by networked, adaptive systems.

Summary

In 2018, Agile was at a crossroads—expanding beyond software, clashing with management, and proving its worth through pioneers like Apple and Etsy. By 2025, it’s a dominant force, reshaped by AI, ecosystems, and a customer-first world. The vertical-horizontal tension persists but leans toward enablement, with traditional management forced to hybridize or atrophy. Agile’s challenges—scalability, authenticity—have been met with innovation, though execution remains key. What was a radical ideology in 2018 is now a baseline expectation, driving not just firms but entire economies into a post-bureaucratic era.